Swing States of America: Candidate Tracker and News, July 24

Image courtesy of The Economist

Candidate Tracker:

Barack Obama: the President is making his way up the west coast for fundraising events. On Tuesday morning he will travel from San Francisco to Portland, and will then spend the night in Seattle after a fundraising at private homes.  Meanwhile, First Lady Michelle Obama is covering ground in swing state Ohio, where she will be campaigning to grassroots supporters.

Mitt Romney: Governor Romney is spending Tuesday campaigning at the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Reno, Nevada.

See our tracker summary for Barack Obama since he became president and Mitt Romney since he effectively earned the Republican nomination.

Latest Stories on the Candidates' State Strategies:

States of Play

The Economist / July 24, 2012

According to the Economist's interactive map showing the latest polling data for the presidential election, there are only five true swing states: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina.

The Incredible Shrinking - and Increasingly Valuable - Undecided Voter

The Washington Post / July 23, 2012

Candidates will spend more money on undecided voters than ever before, now that the pool of such voters has shrunk considerably since the past two elections. According to the Washington Post's calculations, "if $3 billion is spent on the election [...] and only 6 percent of the electorate is really willing to change its mind, that means roughly $400 will be spent trying to persuade each of those voters."

Number Of Unregistered Latino Voters Large Enough To Transform Red States Into Swing States

The Huffington Post / July 22, 2012

According to the Huffington Post's analysis, there are over twelve million unregistered Latino voters in ten swing states. If enough eligible Latinos register to vote, new swing states could emerge, red states could become blue states, and we can expect campaigns to respond accordingly.

In Swing States, Economic Picture a Little Brighter for Obama

The Washington Post / July 22, 2012

The Washington Post reports that five out of the eight "truest" swing states (Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin) have unemployment rates below the national average. This downward trend could convince undecided swing state voters to vote for Obama.

Can Maine Find Political Relevance Before the Presidential Election in November?

The Morning Sentinel / July 22, 2012

Maine doesn't usually get much campaign attention, but that could change, because unlike most states Maine can split its electors if the majority of voters in separate districts support different candidates. As a result, "national campaigns also consider how much proverbial bang for their buck they can get by buying TV airtime for ads in that district relative to other districts. Maine's 2nd District happens to be in an exceptionally cheap and easy media market [...] So the Romney and Obama campaigns may calculate that the relatively low investment is worth the opportunity to snag even just one electoral vote."

Unswinging, Oregon is a Presidential Election Afterthought

The Oregonian / July 20, 2012

Presidential candidates only visit Oregon--not a swing state--for fundraising purposes, not for campaigning. Given that "this isn't so much a national campaign as an Ohio-Virginia playoff," this story suggests a national popular vote as a solution to that unfairness.