Monopoly Politics 2012
What's the partisan landscape in Congressional races in your state?
Monopoly Politics 2012 includes our analysis of the impact of redistricting, the partisan fundamentals for each state and each district, and our projections for the 2012 Congressional elections.
Update: November 7, 2012: All 333 of those projections proved to be correct.
2011-2012 Redistricting and District Partisanship Data for Every State
- Overview of each state's redistricting process in 2011-2012
- The partisanship rating for all 435 House districts
- The partisanship rating for incumbents' 2012 district compared to their 2010 district, along with information about incumbents' past performance
- Our 2012 election projections for every district based on these factors, made in July
Click a state name below for each report. Click here for National projections. Our methodology clarifies the reports.
Pre-Election Analysis
- Impact of redistricting - How redistricting in 2011-2012 affected voter choice and shielded vulnerable incumbents
- Election projection overview - What our projections say about the 2012 elections and beyond
- Power of partisanship - How district partisanship overwhelmed all other factors in 2010 elections
- The great partisan shift in the South - Comparison of the partisan landscape in southern states in 1991 to 2011 and that shift's impact on competition and voting rights
- Partisanship and crossover voting in the U.S. House - How district partisanship is the strongest explanation for why some Members break from their party's majority on certain votes
- FairVote Correctly Predicts 333 House Races: In July, FairVote made projections for 333 of the 435 congressional races in the 2012 election, all of which proved to be correct
- Partisan Bias in U.S. House Elections: In a Washington Post op-ed, FairVote Executive Director Rob Richie argues that House elections have a significant structural bias in favor of Republicans as a result of winner-take-all elections
- The Vanishing Congressional Moderate: The number of moderates in Congress is likely to further decline as a result of the 2012 elections, as district partisanship shows
- Most Voters Wanted a Democratic House: FairVote's analytic methods demonstrate that although the Republicans won the House, 52% of voters preferred Democratic candidates
- Incumbency Bump Analysis: An explanation of the incumbency bump received by incumbent candidates in 2012, and how that advantage fits into the context of recent congressional elections
Source Data: Find here a spreadsheet containing the complete data used to create the Monopoly Politics 2012 and Fair Voting 2012 reports. This data includes partisanship ratings and racial makeup for each congressional district before and after redistricting, as well as a breakdown of each proposed Super District by partisanship and race.
______________________________________Related_________________________________________
- Comprehensive state-by-state data on competition and representation in every state since 1982
- FairVote's proposed maps for every state that would put nearly every voter in the United States in the position to elect candidates of choice in a competitive election
- Fair Voting Interactive Map
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